A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
